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The Institutional Pre-Trade Checklist.
23 checks. Every position.

This is how institutional desks approach every trade before entering. Doing it manually takes 3–4 hours per position. Use this checklist to make sure nothing critical is missed, Argus's Pre-Trade Check runs the trade-structure and risk math (entry, stop, target, risk/reward, position sizing, portfolio fit), and the agents cover several of the research checks (insider filings, earnings news, Fed and macro data) elsewhere in the product.

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How to use this: Work through each section before entering a new position. Check off each item as you confirm it. Items marked with a detail line explain what to look for, not just what to check. If you can't confirm an item, that's information: it means either the edge isn't there, or your research isn't complete enough to act.

01, MACRO CONTEXT Before you look at the company 3 CHECKS
01
What is the current market regime?
Check VIX level, S&P 500 trend vs 20/50-day MA, and credit spread direction. Risk-on, risk-off, or transitional? A 91-conviction long setup in confirmed risk-off carries half the weight it does in a sustained bull trend.
02
Is this sector currently under regulatory or policy pressure?
Check pending legislation, FOMC language around the sector, and any active regulatory reviews. Pharma, energy, finance, and tech all rotate in and out of regulatory headwind cycles. Know which phase the sector is in.
03
What is the macro catalyst calendar for the next 30 days?
FOMC meeting dates, CPI release, jobs report, and any sector-specific regulatory hearings. A position that looks clean technically can get destroyed by a macro event you didn't see coming, because you didn't check the calendar.
02, FUNDAMENTAL SNAPSHOT What the filings actually say 5 CHECKS
04
What does the most recent 10-K/10-Q actually say about the business?
Not the earnings call headline, the actual filing. Look for: new risk factors added since the prior filing, changes in revenue recognition language, inventory build-ups, and management discussion of margin trajectory. These often say what the call doesn't.
05
Has management guided up, down, or reaffirmed in the last earnings call?
Pay attention to the exact language. "We remain confident" is different from "we are raising guidance." A CFO who hedges every forward-looking statement is telling you something. Transcript sentiment matters as much as the number.
06
What is the current short interest and days-to-cover?
Short interest as % of float and days-to-cover together tell you squeeze risk (if you're long) or crowding risk (if you're short). Short interest above 15% of float with rising trend is dangerous for longs. Above 20% with a positive catalyst incoming is a potential squeeze setup.
07
Any recent analyst rating changes? What triggered them?
Not just the direction, the reason. A downgrade due to valuation is different from a downgrade due to a competitive threat or a channel check. The catalyst behind the change tells you whether the consensus view is shifting structurally or just on price.
08
Is there a DCF or fair value estimate, and where is current price vs. that?
Doesn't need to be your own model, use the sell-side median or a quick EV/EBITDA vs. peers comparison. Knowing whether you're buying at a discount, at fair value, or paying a premium shapes how you size and where you exit.
03, SMART MONEY ACTIVITY What insiders and institutions are doing 6 CHECKS
09
Any Form 4 insider purchases or sales in the last 60 days?
Cluster purchases (3+ insiders buying within 30 days) are the strongest insider signal. Single purchases are interesting but not conclusive. Sales via 10b5-1 plans are routine, open-market discretionary sales are the red flag. CEO/CFO trades carry more weight than director activity.
10
Have any institutions filed 13F changes showing meaningful position changes?
New position initiations by major funds, large increases in existing positions, or mass exits by multiple funds in the same quarter are all meaningful. Most recent 13Fs are 45–60 days stale, useful for direction, not timing.
11
Have any congressional figures with relevant committee positions traded this ticker?
Members sitting on finance, energy, defense, or tech committees trading in those sectors before hearings or votes is historically significant. Check the STOCK Act disclosure date and the gap between transaction date and disclosure, wide gaps sometimes indicate delayed reporting.
12
Any dark pool prints or unusual options flow in the last 2 weeks?
Large off-exchange prints on a low-volume ticker, or options sweeps buying deep ITM calls before expected news, often precede moves. Not directional by themselves, but combined with other signals they raise conviction. Look for unusual call volume vs. the trailing 30-day average.
13
Has any activist investor filed a 13D (crossed 5% with stated intent)?
A 13D filing is materially different from a 13G, it signals active engagement intent, not passive investment. 13D filers often push for buybacks, CEO changes, spin-offs, or M&A. The precursor signal is a 13G filing being amended to a 13D.
14
Do insider activity and congressional trades agree on direction?
When CEO cluster buying coincides with senate committee members buying the same ticker, the combined signal carries substantially higher conviction than either alone. Alignment across independent sources with non-public access is the gold standard signal.
04, CATALYST & TIMING What moves it and when 5 CHECKS
15
Is there an earnings date within 30 days?
Pre-earnings positioning is a distinct trade type, you're betting on direction, magnitude, and implied vol compression. Know whether you're in a pre-earnings drift setup (stock runs into earnings), a compression play (sell the vol), or whether earnings are a risk to be avoided, not traded.
16
Any pending M&A rumors, activist filings, or strategic review announcements?
Check recent 8-K filings, news flow, and 13D activity. M&A catalysts can compress multi-year theses into weeks. But the borrow cost on rumor-driven setups is high and timing is unpredictable, size accordingly.
17
What is the next identifiable catalyst, and is it priced in?
Every thesis needs a catalyst, something that changes the market's valuation of the business. If the catalyst you're relying on is already consensus, the trade is much weaker. You want to be early to a catalyst the market is underweighting, not late to one it already priced.
18
What would have to be true for this trade to be completely wrong?
Write down the specific bear case before you enter. Not "the stock could go down", the actual fundamental or macro condition that would invalidate the thesis. If you can't articulate it, you don't understand the trade well enough to size it correctly.
19
Is the current technical setup confirming the fundamental thesis?
Price structure, 20/50-day relative strength, and volume confirmation should align with your fundamental view. A strong fundamental thesis in a technically broken chart is a thesis at the wrong time. Wait for the chart to confirm, or size smaller while it repairs.
05, TRADE STRUCTURE Before you pull the trigger 4 CHECKS
20
What is the entry zone and is current price inside it?
Define the entry zone before you look at the ask. If current price is outside your entry zone, either wait or accept that you're chasing. Chasing is a position size decision, if you chase, size down to account for the reduced risk/reward at the higher entry.
21
Where is the invalidation level, and is risk/reward > 2:1?
The stop is not where the pain stops, it's where the thesis is proven wrong. Calculate: (target price − entry) / (entry − stop). If R/R is below 2:1, either the target is too conservative, the stop is too tight, or the setup doesn't have enough edge to take. Don't negotiate this ratio.
22
What is position sizing vs. total portfolio and sector concentration?
No single position above 10% of portfolio for high-conviction, 5% for speculative. No single sector above 30%. If adding this position brings you above either limit, either reduce the size or sell something else first. Concentration is usually where drawdowns come from, not individual stock picks.
23
Have you written the trade in your journal before entering?
Ticker, thesis in 2–3 sentences, catalyst, entry, stop, target, position size, and the one data point that would prove it wrong. Writing forces clarity. If you can't write it in 3 minutes, you haven't thought it through. This is the last checkpoint, if anything felt uncertain, go back.

Argus does the trade math, and part of the research.

10 specialist agents read SEC insider filings, earnings news, and Fed and FRED macro data every weekday morning and on demand, and the Pre-Trade Check scores your entry, stop, risk/reward, and portfolio fit in seconds.

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